Abans Group Commodity World Round Up

18th Jan – 22nd Jan

1.EIA expects crude oil prices to average near $50 per barrel through 2022

Jan 22, 2021

In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that global demand for petroleum liquids will be greater than the global supply in 2021, especially during the first quarter, leading to inventory draws. As a result, the EIA expects the price of Brent crude oil to increase from its December 2020 average of $50 per barrel (b) to an average of $56/b in the first quarter of 2021. The Brent price is then expected to average between $51/b and $54/b on a quarterly basis through 2022.

Source: Reuters

2.OPEC+ Compliance With Oil Production Pact Drops To 99%

Jan 21, 2021

The producers part of the OPEC+ alliance complied with the oil output cuts at 99 percent in December 2020, down from 101 percent compliance in November, sources at the OPEC+ group told Reuters on Thursday. Crude production from OPEC alone, according to the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report published last week, averaged 25.36 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2020, rising by 280,000 bpd compared to November.

Source: Reuters

3 .The European Central Bank holds steady on a $2.25 trillion bond-buying package

Jan 21, 2021

The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates at their record-low levels, and kept bond-buying steady on Thursday, taking a breather, after increasing support to the coronavirus-ravaged Eurozone economy in December. The ECB's Governing Council kept its main deposit rate at -0.5%, meaning that banks are charged to keep money with the central bank, encouraging them to lend it out. After increasing support last month, the ECB kept its key bond-buying scheme - the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) - at €1.85 trillion ($2.25 trillion).

Source: Reuters

4.China’s GDP Grows 2.3% in 2020, Bounces Back To Pre-Pandemic Trajectory

Jan 18, 2021

China's economy grew at the slowest pace in more than four decades last year, despite a rebound after the country's coronavirus outbreak, official data showed Monday. The 2.3 percent expansion is the lowest figure, ever since the Chinese economy embarked on major reforms in the 1970s. In the last three months of 2020, China's economic rebound continued with a better-than-expected 6.5 percent growth year-on-year, a sustained improvement since the second quarter.

Source: Bloomberg

5.Eurozone business activity shrinks again 

Jan 22, 2021

Business activity in the Eurozone fell to a two-month low in January, preliminary data showed on Friday, on the back of stricter coronavirus-related lockdowns. Markit’s flash composite PMI for Eurozone, which looks at activity across both manufacturing and services, dropped to 47.5 in January, versus 49.1 in December. A reading below 50 represents a contraction in activity.

Source: CNBC

6.Bank of Japan lifts next year's growth forecast

Jan 21, 2021

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady on Thursday, and upgraded its economic forecast for the next fiscal year, but warned of escalating risks to the outlook, as new coronavirus emergency measures threatened to derail a fragile recovery. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its targets under yield curve control (YCC) at -0.1% for short-term interest rates, and around 0% for 10-year bond yields. In fresh quarterly projections, the BOJ upgraded next fiscal year’s growth forecast to a 3.9% expansion, from a 3.6% gain, seen three months ago, based on the hopes that the government’s huge spending package will soften the blow from the pandemic.

Source: Reuters

7.Indonesia stays China's second-biggest nickel ore supplier despite export ban

Jan 20, 2021

Indonesia remained China’s second-biggest nickel ore supplier in 2020, Chinese customs data showed on Wednesday, despite the Southeast Asian country’s ban on exports of the material. Arrivals of Indonesian nickel ore into China totalled 3.4 million tons last year, the General Administration of Customs reported. This was down 85.8 percent from 2019, but still second only to the Philippines at 31.98 million tons, and ahead of New Caledonia in third.

Source: Reuters

8.China's imports of Australian copper ore plunged to zero

Jan 20, 2021

China’s imports of copper concentrate from Australia dried up completely in December, customs data showed on Wednesday, with monthly arrivals at zero for the first time in over 16 years, as smelters shunned Australian supply, amidst tense bilateral relations. Imports of copper ores and concentrates from Australia were zero tonnes last month, according to General Administration of Customs data. This compares to 26,717 tonnes imported in November, and 110,930 tonnes in December 2019. For 2020, Australia was China’s sixth-largest copper concentrate supplier at 783,476 tonnes, down 25% from 2019, and the lowest yearly total since 2016, the data showed. Australia was the fifth-largest supplier in 2019.

Source: Reuters