Abans Group Commodity World Round Up

24 May - 28 May

1. BoE could raise interest rates in the first half of 2022

May 27, 2021

The Bank of England could raise interest rates as soon as the first half of next year if the job market bounces back faster than expected, but it is more likely to wait until later in 2022, BoE policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said today. Vlieghe said he broadly agreed with BoE’s forecasts earlier this month that point to growth of 7.25% this year, though he thought unemployment could prove to be higher than forecast after a government furlough programme ends on 30 September.

Source: Reuters

2. Global copper mine production up 3.5% through the first two months of 2021

May 27, 2021

Global copper mine production rose by 3.5% through the first two months of the year, the International Copper Study Group reported. Furthermore, copper concentrate production rose by 5% during the period, while solvent extraction-electro winning fell by about 3%. Chile, the top copper producer, saw its copper mine production fall by 2.6% during the first two months of the year. Meanwhile, Peru, the second-largest producer, saw its output fall by 7.5% in January. Peru’s mine output bounced back in February, leading to an aggregated 3.7% drop for the two-month period. Indonesia’s output rose by 90%, due to ramping up of underground production from the Grasberg mine. Meanwhile, refined copper production picked up by 2.9% during the first two months of the year. Chile’s refined copper output declined by 8.7%. Meanwhile, according to preliminary data, China’s refined production rose by 5%.

Source: Agmetalminer

3. Renewed Iran nuclear deal ‘feasible’ as talks enter likely final round

May 25, 2021

Negotiators returned to the Austrian capital on Tuesday for the fifth — and likely final — round of discussions over bringing the U.S. and Iran back into compliance with a 2015 nuclear deal, which curbed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Should both sides revive a 2015 nuclear deal and the U.S. lifts its current sanctions against Iran, the latter is predicted to add between 500,000 barrels a day (BPD) and 1.5 million BPD of crude and condensate to the market.

Source: Reuters

4. OPEC+ Set To Proceed With Plans To Boost July Oil Production

May 27, 2021

The OPEC+ group is expected to confirm next week its May-July plan to ease the oil production cuts by the planned 840,000 barrels per day (BPD) in July, OPEC+ delegates and two dozen analysts told Bloomberg News on Thursday. The ministers of the OPEC+ group are scheduled to meet on Tuesday, June 1, and at present, no surprises are expected, despite this year’s track record of decisions surprising the market to both the bullish and bearish sides. The collective OPEC+ oil production is set to rise by 350,000 BPD in both May and June and by more than 400,000 BPD in July. Additionally, Saudi Arabia is also gradually easing its extra unilateral cut of 1 million BPD over the next few months, beginning with monthly production increases of 250,000 BPD in both May and June.

Source: Bloomberg

5. U.S. oil, natural gas companies preparing for 2021 hurricane season

May 27, 2021

U.S. oil and natural gas companies are gearing up for this year’s forecast of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, a security and emergency expert with the American Petroleum Institute (API) said. Last year’s record 30 named storms forced shutdowns of offshore oil production that reached, at one point, 90% of 1.9 million barrels per day in production and idled refineries for weeks. Two refineries in hard-hit Lake Charles, Louisiana, were shut for months. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners have revised plans after widespread storm-related outages, said Jeff Gunnulfsen, director of security and risk management for trade group American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts between three and five major hurricanes this year, with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 kph).

Source: Hellenic shipping news

6. Bank of Thailand buys 43.5 tonnes in April

May 26, 2021

The Bank of Thailand bought 43.5 tonnes of gold in April. Other central banks that added to their gold reserves last month included Uzbekistan, which bought 8.4 tonnes of gold, Kazakhstan, which increased its holding by 4.4 tons. In March, India's central bank bought 6.8 tonnes of gold and Cambodia's central bank bought 5 tonnes of the precious metal. Central Banks' renewed interest in gold comes after subdued activity in the first quarter. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks bought 95.5 tonnes of gold between January and March, a decline of 23% compared to purchases made during the first quarter of 2020.

Source: Kitco News

7. China's factory activity seen growing steadily in May

May 28, 2021

China's factory activity likely maintained a steady growth momentum in May after months of expansion following a COVID-induced slump, although high raw materials costs continue to weigh on the outlook. The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) is expected to hit 51.1 in May, according to the median forecast of 21 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity on a monthly basis. The private Caixin manufacturing PMI will be published on Tuesday. Analysts expect the headline reading will slip slightly to 51.7 from April's 51.9.

Source: Reuters

8. U.S. GDP expanded at 6.4% rate in first quarter

May 27, 2021

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 6.4% pace in the first quarter unrevised from the prior estimate released last month, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting a 6.6% rate. While consumer spending was revised higher, this was offset in part by stronger import growth, the government said

Source: Marketwatch