Abans Group Commodity World Round Up

25th Jan – 29th Jan

1. US economy shrank 3.5% in 2020 after growing 4% in the last quarter

Jan 28, 2021

US Gross Domestic product (GDP) increased at a 4% pace in the fourth quarter, slightly below the 4.3% expectation. In the Commerce report, the annualized pace closed out 2020, which saw GDP, on an overall basis, decline 3.5% for the full year, and by 2.5% from the fourth quarter of 2019. The economy fell into a recession in February, a month before the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a pandemic. The 3.5% decline is the worst year for the U.S. since at least the end of World War II.

Source: CNBC

2. Global oil demand to rise, boosted by vaccine distribution and economy

Jan 28, 2021

According to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, global oil demand is expected to rise by nearly 7% this year, boosted by quicker vaccine distribution, and a better economic outlook. Total liquid demand is expected to average 96.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, 6.3 million bpd higher than last year, when the Covid-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented oil demand shock. Rig activity is expected to continue to rise, but much of the recovery rate will be dependent on oil prices and the industry's willingness to spend on volume growth again.

Source: Reuters

3. Iran’s oil exports rise in January despite sanctions

Jan 28, 2021

Iranian oil exports are climbing in January, after a boost in the fourth quarter, despite U.S. sanctions. SVB International estimated Iranian crude exports increased to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, from 490,000 bpd in October, and that shipments and production so far in January were moving up. Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, last week said crude exports had recently risen “significantly”, without giving figures. Elias Naderan, an Iranian lawmaker, was quoted by Mehr news agency, as saying that they had reached 900,000 bpd.

Source: hellenicshippingnews

4. US Federal Reserve pledged to keep supporting the economy

Jan 28, 2021

The Fed left its key overnight interest rate near zero, and made no change to its monthly bond purchases. However, the Federal Reserve pledged again to keep supporting the economy, until there is a full rebound from the pandemic-triggered recession. The Fed statement says that "the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic."

Source: Reuters

5. Global copper market posted an apparent deficit of 480,000 metric tons

Jan 26, 2021

As per an ICSG report, the global copper market posted an apparent deficit of 480,000 metric tons through the first 10 months of 2020 and global copper mine production fell by 0.5%, during the aforementioned period. In Peru, the world’s second-largest copper producer, copper mine production fell by 14%, during the first 10 months of 2019. Furthermore, from April-May, production fell 38%, year-over-year. Meanwhile, Chile, the top producer, saw output fall 3% from July-October, leaving output unchanged, year-over-year, for the 10-month period.

Source: MetalMiner

6. Libya prepares to ramp up Oil production

Jan 27, 2021

At present, Libya is producing 1,224 million bpd of oil, up from just 121,000 bpd in the third quarter of 2020. This demonstrates the significance of the ceasefire agreement in revitalizing the Libyan oil sector and economy. However, this is still well below pre-Arab spring average production figures of between 1.5 and 1.6 million bpd. As production begins to increase, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has announced aims to reach an output of 2.1 million bpd within the next three years. In mid-January, there was a decrease in the production of 200,000 bpd, as a 60-year-old pipeline needed to be shut down for maintenance. 

Source: Oilprice

7.China likely to avoid setting 2021 GDP target over debt concerns

Jan 28, 2021

 China will likely avoid setting a 2021 growth target, dropping the closely watched measure for a second straight year, upon concerns that maintaining one could encourage provincial economies to ramp up debt. The world's second-biggest economy eked out a 2.3% growth last year, despite the ravages of the pandemic, which emerged in the central city of Wuhan, and will rebound a sharp 8.4% this year, thanks to Beijing's aggressive COVID-19 response and global recovery.

Source: Reuters

8. The global refined zinc market registered a supply deficit of 480,000 tonnes 

Jan 28, 2021

The global refined zinc market registered a supply deficit of 480,000 tonnes over the first ten months of 2020, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). Back in October, the group forecast a 620,000-tonne surplus for 2020 and another hefty 463,000-tonne surplus for this year. Meanwhile, LME Zinc stocks rose by just 151,000 tonnes, from a very low base.

Source: Reuters