Abans Group Commodity World Round Up

12th Oct – 16th Oct

1. IMF warns that global economy could be permanently scarred

Oct 14, 2020

In its economic outlook, the IMF has forecast that global growth would shrink 4.4% this year, which would mark the worst downturn, since the Great Depression. The World Bank has forecasted that the pandemic could send an additional 114 million people into extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 a day. China continues to be the only economy in the world to show positive growth in 2020, as its GDP is predicted to expand 1.9 percent this year, according to the latest economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday. The IMF has projected India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to plunge by 10.3 percent in the financial year 2020-21, revising its earlier estimate of a 4.5 percent de-growth.

Source: IMF, Bloomberg

2. OPEC Chief assures markets that oil prices won’t crash again

Oct 15, 2020

The OPEC+ group will look to ensure that prices do not plummet again, as they did in the spring, OPEC’s Secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo, said on the Energy Intelligence Forum on Thursday. OPEC+ believes that the worst of the crisis is behind us, but the recovery is going to be slower than expected earlier this year, with demand still struggling, OPEC’s chief said at the forum. 

Source: Oilprice

3. US oil rigs post their biggest jump since January

Oct 16, 2020

Oil and gas rigs have increased for the fifth consecutive week in the US. The total number of active oil and gas rigs in the US has increased for the week by 13, with oil rigs rising by 12, and gas rigs rising by 1. Total oil and gas rigs in the United States are now down by 569, compared to this time last year.

Source: Baker Hughes, Reuters

4. IEA says that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020

Oct 14, 2020

Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), has just released its flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook 2020, which provides a comprehensive view of how the global energy system could develop in the coming decades. The IEA says that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, with energy investment dropping a shocking 18%.  It also expects that global energy demand will not fully recover to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2023.

Source: IEA, Reuters

5. China’s September copper imports jump to their second-highest level on record

Oct 13, 2020

China’s copper imports rose in September to their second-highest level on record, official data showed on Tuesday. Arrivals of unwrought copper and copper products stood at 722,450 tonnes last month, the General Administration of Customs said, close to the record 762,210.9 tonnes imported in July. Last month’s imports figure, which includes anode, refined, alloy, and semi-finished copper products, was up 8.1%, from August, and up 62.3%, from September 2019.

Source: Reuters

6. China’s trade recovery gathers steam

Oct 13, 2020

China’s trade economy continued to grow strongly in September. Imports grew by 13.2 per cent last month, from a year earlier, having been forecast to grow by just 0.4 per cent. This was up, from a 2.1 per cent contraction in August, and marks a surprising turnaround. Exports grew by 9.9 per cent in September, compared with a year earlier, up slightly from the 9.5 per cent growth in August. China’s overall trade surplus dropped sharply to US$37 billion in September, down from US$58.93 billion in August.

Source: South China Post

7.  U.S. retail sales accelerated in September

Oct 16, 2020

U.S. retail sales accelerated in September, rounding out a strong quarter of economic activity. Retail sales jumped 1.9%, against a forecast of 0.7% last month, as consumers bought motor vehicles and clothing, dined out, and splashed out on hobbies. This followed an unrevised 0.6% increase in August. Retail sales rose 5.4%, on a year-on-year basis, in September. Retail sales have bounced back above their February levels, with the pandemic boosting demand for goods that complement life at home, including furniture and electronics.

Source: Reuters

8. Firm dollar, and fading stimulus hopes, are keeping gold prices under pressure

Oct 16, 2020

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday, that he was willing to raise his offer of $1.8 trillion for a relief deal with the Democrats in the Congress, but the idea was shot down by Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell. Gold prices are holding near $1,900 this week, with a loss in the last three weeks. Volatility has increased, due to stimulus speculation, and uncertainty over the US election.

Source: Reuters