Abans Group Commodity World Round Up

21st Sept - 25th Sept

1. Gold and silver have the worst week since March on the back of rising dollar

Sept 26, 2020

Gold and silver posted their biggest weekly losses since March, when the global onset of the coronavirus pandemic panicked markets. Gold prices were down nearly 6% from last week’s high of $1,983 per ounce, and silver prices are down by almost 17% from the previous week’s high of $27.685 per ounce. The dollar gained as concerns over the outlook for global economic growth bolstered the appeal of the currency as a haven, which replaced against the gold demand.

Source: Live mint

2. Global copper market flips to deficit by June after Q1 surplus: ICSG

Sept 23, 2020

The global refined copper balance, through June, plunged to an apparent deficit of 235,000 mt, after reaching a 130,000 mt surplus, at the end of the first quarter, according to data released on September 21, by the International Copper Study Group. Estimated data from the ICSG indicated that monthly world refined copper usage rose to 2.25 million mt in June, from 2.09 million mt in May, but production remained mostly unchanged at 2.06 million mt. The global refined copper balance from January to June, adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded stocks, indicated a market surplus of about 278,000 mt, the ICSG added.

Source: Reuters, ICSG

3. India's August crude processing drops as raging virus cases dim demand

Sept 25, 2020

Indian refiners processed 3.82 million barrels per day (bpd), or 16.15 million tonnes of crude last month, 8.7% lower than in July, government data released on Thursday showed. Crude oil throughput in August recorded its largest year-on-year contraction since April, when it posted its steepest decline since 2003.

Source: Economic Times

4. US crude oil exports have fallen in each month since record highs in February: EIA

Sept 22, 2020

As per the EIA report, US crude oil exports had reached a record high in February 2020, and have since fallen in each month, based on data through June. Still, US crude oil exports in the first half of the year are higher than they were in the first half of 2019. US crude oil exports averaged 3.2 million bpd in the first half of 2020, up from 2.9 million bpd in the first half of 2019. Meanwhile, monthly US crude oil imports declined sharply in April, before increasing in May and June, but they were still lower in the first half of 2020, compared with the first half of 2019. US crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million bpd in the first half of 2020, down 12% compared with the first half of 2019.

Source: World Pipeline.com & EIA

5. Iran significantly boosts oil exports despite sanctions

Sept 25, 2020

Iran is estimated to have exported nearly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and condensate so far in September, which would be the highest level of Iranian exports in a year and a half, and double the observed exports in August. Iran continues to export oil, in defiance of the U.S. sanctions. According to data, Iran was exporting as much as 600,000 bpd, using ship-to-ship transfers. The daily average number compares with an estimate of 227,000 bpd made in a U.S. Congressional report.

Source: Reuters

6. Russia remains China’s top oil supplier

Sept 25, 2020

According to a Reuters report, Russia was the biggest exporter of crude oil to China last month, for the second month in a row. Russia shipped 1.37 million bpd to China last month, down both on the month, and on the year, but ahead of Saudi Arabia’s average of 1.24 million bpd. Saudi Arabia came second, but its exports to the world’s top importer fell by 300 percent in August.

Source: Reuters

7. Natural gas prices to trade higher on lower US production and higher winter demand

Sept 25, 2020

The coming of the winter heating season is about to change the fundamentals. Demand is expected to rise, with the fall in temperatures in the northern hemisphere, supporting U.S. and global natural gas prices. Having plunged by more than 50 percent between January and July, U.S. LNG exports are set to pick up the pace, and the increase already started in August. As per the EIA estimates, U.S. LNG exports averaged 3.7 Bcf/d in August, up by 19 percent from July, amid rising spot and forward natural gas prices in Europe and Asia.

Source: Oilprices.com & EIA

8. The world’s car industry pins its hopes on China’s recovery

Sept 25, 2020

Sales of passenger cars in China have increased for two months, while the other major markets have continued to shrink, with Europe slumping 18% in August. China's car sales rose 6% in August over a year earlier. Sales of sedans, SUVs, and minivans rose to 1.7 million, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Total vehicle sales, including trucks and buses, rose 11.6%, to 2.2 million. August sales of electric and gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles rose 25.8%, over a year earlier to 109,000. Year to date, sales were off 26.4%, at 596,000. SUV sales rose 6.5%, to 800,000. They were off 8.7% for the first eight months of the year, at 5.2 million. Sedan sales gained 5.8%, to 821,000. For the year to date, they fell 18.8%, to 5.3 million. As per the research by S&P Global Ratings, China is set to be the first to bounce back to 2019 volume levels, albeit as late as 2022.

Source: Bloomberg