Oil supply to remain comfortable despite US sanctions, Aluminium drops to 15 months low & drop in domestic fuel prices

27th Oct – 02nd Nov

1. Comfortable oil supply even after US sanctions on Iran, says President Trump

November 01, 2018

President Donald Trump mentioned in a memorandum that there was enough supply of petroleum and petroleum products for countries to "significantly" reduce the buying of crude oil from Iran. Iran will face US sanctions from November 5, 2018; some countries like India, Japan and China are seeking a waiver on Iran imports.

Source: Economic times

2. The rupee recovered after oil prices dropped

November 01, 2018

Indian exporters are selling US dollar as oil prices are cooling off and they don’t see a further decline in Indian rupee. The Indian rupee may strengthen further from these levels as the economy improves from CAD worries in this quarter. The Indian rupee was also stable after the jolt of a tussle between RBI and Government cooling off.

Source: Economic Times

3. Moderate gold demand expected in India due to higher prices: WGC

November 01, 2018

Gold demand may not pick up unless there is some major correction in gold prices during festival and wedding season as gold is costly and holding on to near 2 years high levels during the festival of Deepawali.

Global Jewelry demand was up 6% in Q3, totaling 535.7 tonnes. Indian total demand in the first three quarters of this year was down one percent at 524 tonnes from 529 tonnes last year. Indian gold demand is projected to remain flat this year at 700 tonnes marginally lower than 771 tonnes from last year as per the WGC report.

Source: Outlook

4. Aluminium dropped to 15 months low on US-China war fears

November 01, 2018

Aluminium trades near a 15-month low on Wednesday, with a 5 percent loss on the month, after China's manufacturing sector growth hurt and grew at its slowest pace since July 2016, and concerns rising about excess Chinese supply of Aluminium. Factory growth in China, the world's top metals consumer, increased worries about slowing economic growth due to a trade conflict with the United States.

Source: Business Standard

5. Gold to silver ratio highest since 1993

October 31, 2018

Silver generally follows gold price movements, but it is termed more of a base metal than precious metals as 55% of silver is used in various types of industries, mainly electronics. As gold is turning around from recent lows, this is giving hope to silver bullish move as well. Silver has fallen faster than gold in the recent past and gold to silver ratio is above 85 (Highest since 1993) which indicates that from these lowest levels, silver may outperform gold better in term of returns on investment if recovery starts in the precious metals complex.

Source: Business Standard

6. India’s crude steel output increases as per world Steel Association report

October 29, 2018

According to the World Steel Association (WSA), global crude steel output increased to 151.70 million tonnes in September, with an increase of 4.4% this year. Indian crude steel production reached 8.520 million tonnes in Sep’18, an increase of 2.1% as compared to 8.345 million tonnes for the same period last year. Meanwhile, China remains the world's top steel producer with 80.8 million tonnes of output, up 7.5% YOY in September.

Source: Money control

7. Petrol and Diesel prices dropped as crude recovers

October 26, 2018

As the Brent oil prices continued to rise till mid of October, the price of domestic fuel also increased but since last eight days, international oil prices have been falling and the rupee has also appreciated - these two factors are the reason behind the drop in transport fuel prices in India.

Source: Times of India

8. Indian public sectors companies placing orders from Iran in anticipation of waivers from the US

October 26, 2018

Indian public sector companies are reported to have placed orders for the November month from Iran, Mr. Sunjay Sudhir, Joint Secretary for International Co-operation, under petroleum ministry was quoted saying to media last week. India has historical relations with Iran. Indian oil companies are expecting sanction waivers. India receives almost 65% of oil supply from the Middle East out, of which majority of it was supplied from Iran till May 2018.

Source: Business Standard