U.S. crude oil production to reach record highs, OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee to meet in Sept & rupee firm on hopes of roll back surcharge on FPI’s

03rd Aug – 09th Aug

1. Rupee firm on hopes that government may roll back surcharge on FPI’s

Aug 09, 2019

The Indian rupee gained strength on hopes that the government may roll back the surcharge on foreign funds announced in the Budget this year, amidst reports of a meeting between foreign investors and Finance Ministry officials regarding higher tax surcharge during the day. The rupee is also getting support from weakness in crude oil prices and the RBI rate cut recently.

Source: Business Line

2. RBI has cut interest rates more aggressively than expected

Aug 07, 2019

RBI has cut interest rates more aggressively than expected. The benchmark rates are now at their lowest levels since April 2010. The RBI rate cut is balanced between 25 bps and 50 bps, but we expect the Central bank to cut rates by another 25 bps in the current year and also expect interest rates to remain lower for a longer period going forward.

Source: Economic Times

3. RBI lowers the growth forecast to 6.9% from 7% for FY20

Aug 07, 2019

The RBI's lowering of the growth forecast for FY20 to 6.9% from 7% with a downside risk is an indication that the economy is not in good shape. The RBI has kept the inflation forecast lower. The RBI is giving high priority to boost demand and reduce the risk weight on consumer loans other than credit card bills.

Source: Economic Times

4. Global central banks cut interest rates

Aug 07, 2019

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its interest rate by a half percentage point to a record low of 1%. The Reserve Bank of India ended up doing so by a larger-than-expected rate cut that is 35 basis points. The Thai central bank unexpectedly cut its key rate by 25bp, worried by baht strength.

Source : CNBC

5. Uncertainty over Indonesian supply ban keeps Nickel at 16 months high

Aug 08, 2019

Nickel prices rallied to 16-month highs on supply concerns in Indonesia. Indonesia relaxed a ban to export nickel ore in 2017 but said that exports will be restricted again in 2022. The discount for cash nickel against three-month metal on the LME has shrunk to $US7 a tonne from about $US80 in June, pointing to lower supply in the near future.

Source: Reuters

6. Iron ore extended selling on China's weak demand and inventory build- up

Aug 05, 2019

China’s iron ore futures were on course for their biggest weekly drop since March 2018 amidst stable supply from major miners. Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports has climbed to 121.05 million tonnes this week, up 5% from the 1-1/2-year low level of 115.25 million tonnes in late June.

Source: Economic Times

7. OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee would meet in Abu Dhabi on Sept. 12

Aug 09, 2019

The Saudi Arabian leader of OPEC plans to maintain their crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to bring the market back to balance. Saudi’s production in September may remain lower than it is currently. OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee would meet in Abu Dhabi on Sept. 12 to review the oil market.

Source: Live Mint

8. U.S. crude oil production will reach record highs in 2019 and 2020.

Aug 06, 2019

U.S. crude oil production will reach record highs in 2019 and 2020. According to the EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. crude oil production will average 12.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and 13.3 million b/d in 2020, both of which would be at their highest levels.

Source: Reuters